
Within three months, Italy will have to refinance 150 billion euros of its debt. This deadline is substantial, and let market forces and the vagaries of investor confidence poses a formidable risk. This is slightly less than half the 341 billion euros to refinance this year. Do we have to face facts.The margin of Italian bonds relative to German bonds to ten years has nearly tripled, but there is a glimmer of hope. It comes from the evolution since the beginning of the year.
Although, at present, the rate at ten years is still very high, it helps to consider a voluntary exchange that has no obligation for banks to amortize substantially principal amount of the Italian debt. A month ago, it would have been impossible. Six months ago, it would have been a breeze.
At this rate of Italian bondholders should be able to exchange their bonds without loss record, but by making a sacrifice in interest on a bond to 5 years at 5%. It would be useful even use capital to three years to 1% of the European Central Bank. So we have a window that would allow an agreement far less painful than the banks had to accept on Greece.
The Italian Government’s program was well accepted, both in Italy and Europe, and Mario Monti and his team of “technocrats” have a credit of esteem and true confidence. Plan “Save Italy” is intelligent: it includes measures to support employment and investment that could improve the economic situation at the same time as revenue increases and spending cuts.
If the Italian debt was to be restructured into a large loan in which the various classes of bondholders could subscribe, I have no doubt that Mario Draghi, former Governor of the Banca d’Italia, will lead the European Central Bank, to participate in this restructuring.
The deterioration of the Italian debt is not endogenous. Admittedly, Italy has a problem of competitiveness and growth, with a debt of 120% of its GDP, making the peninsula fragile and vulnerable to currents and storms. But it is the absence of a decision of the European authorities on Greece and the problems of European Financial Stability Fund which, over time increased the skepticism of investors face has the Eurozone. They naturally sought to avoid the risk of the most indebted of them, Italy, with 1,900 billion euros.
Despite the forceps delivery of the Greek plan to be approved this week, it is urgent to get to work on the Italian case. Its explosion would have incalculable consequences, and we can not rely on the ability of markets to refinance “naturally” 150 billion euros in three months.
The stabilization plan of Italy goes through lower interest rates on debt and a spreading of the repayment plan. These are known techniques and mature. The only political suicide is that of the ostrich. And let us face the challenge, and take swift action where the pain will be less than any inaction.