That Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is rather soft and take difficult steps when there is no other choice is not new. But it is far from alone.
The Spanish problem is totally different from that of Greece, and it is customary ignorance of the market which explains the panic of Tuesday.I must say it was caused by an irresponsible attitude of rating agencies that saw fit to reduce the grade of Spain for reasons related to the economic slowdown. This rating remains excellent at AA.
For three years, the Spanish property market overheating, and everyone knew that sooner or later the bubble would burst. The large Spanish banks, which had mostly avoided the ravages of the subprime crisis lie in a relatively robust against the economic recession and the real estate crisis.
But the bursting of the housing bubble, if it is assigned, has a much more serious on the number of students “cajas de ahorros” or “savings” regional or municipal. The latter as the initial granting of mortgage loans. They are now in trouble and must regroup. As these bases and political power for local politicians, they try by every means to delay the inevitable. Politics in the short term? Certainly, but it is not surprising.
It seems that the Spanish government, alarmed by the Greek crisis has finally decided to take the bull (!) By the horns al’approche major bullfights in San Isidro. Who spread the rumor this morning that Spain would have to borrow 280 billion euros to the IMF? Nobody knows, but short sellers are once again challenged. Such a rumor that the advantage is so hard not to blame that on which the crime benefits.
I shudder to write that I announced in my post on Monday that markets should be treated carefully because of the risk of contagion: nothing seems to have been made on this point.Markets, leads to themselves, did what they do naturally, even if it is not very beautiful, namely the work of dragons. Rising CDS, which guarantee the risk is far from Spanish wait Greek levels. (210 basis points against 750).
It is useless to attempt to change these behaviors or to announce sanctions against the markets who believe in these “wild rumors” as said Zapatero. We must let the markets set the inflection point and intervene only when the floor is solid. But this reminds us that a stabilization mechanism which needs the euro in more than one mechanism of crisis.
But it is also time to publish credible figures in real time. This is the only way we confront markets with reality. The idea of going directly to the IMF was absurd. It demonstrates the lack of basic education for investors and traders. Faced with such carelessness that is dependent on the system of rating agencies, the only weapon is information and facts.Denying the risk of infection as did the Spanish Prime Minister after visiting two of the five Presidents Europe is pointless. It must explain why. Or is the budget deficit? What is the actual ratio of debt? Do not ask investors deceived by Greece to Spain without believing in absolute transparency.
The over-reaction of markets is also a consequence of nervousness created by the slow response of the Eurozone. Only a clear explanation of the facts will stop the tornado on Tuesday on the steps of public debts.
The euro fell below $ 1.30. It will only improve when the Greek parliament will vote the austerity measures imposed Hellenic people.